WHAT RASMUSSEN REVEALS – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  The Rasmussen daily tracker has been absolutely fascinating for the last two weeks.

We see, for example, a dramatic improvement in respondents who "strongly approve" of the job President Obama is doing.  It's up to 32%, from a low in the low 20s not many weeks ago.

And yet, when you look at overall approval ratings, the president's numbers have hardly budged:

Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) disapprove.

That, obviously, is a seven-point spread, which is a significant gap.

What explains this seeming disparity is that a larger number of Democrats, who have always approved of Obama, now strongly approve of him, largely because of the passage of the health bill. 

Will this impact the election in November?  Yes, and it could be an important impact.  The thing that gets people to the polls is enthusiasm, or, its opposite, anger.  We know about the anger on the right, and in the center.  But if enthusiasm for Obama grows among his traditional base, more of that base will go to the polls.  Now, that may not matter much in sections of Chicago, where Democratic voters are counted whether voters show up or not, but it can make a big difference in close congressional elections, and there are bound to be many of them.

Karl Rove taught Republicans that they have to take care of their base and bring it out on election day.  Democrats have apparently absorbed the wisdom.  The proverbs of Karl live.

Now the GOP must drag its base, and the angry independents, to the polls as well.  It's not hard.  Just place your hands around a neck, and pull hard.

April 4,  2010